Updated: Monday, Dec 15 01:23:18 AM EST
Evergreen State Geoducks vs Idaho Vandals (Final)
55 - 109, (Margin: -54, Total: 164)
ICCU Arena
Second-Half conditional estimates based on a margin of -39.0 points and 73.0 total points (models are continuously adjusted up to Halftime)
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E[AWAY] E[HOME] E[SP] 68% CI E[TOTAL] 68% CI 2H-A 2H-H 2H-SP 2H-TTL AWAY WIN% HOME WIN% (ODDS HOME)
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56.1 98.5 -42.4 (-52.5, -32.4) 154.6 (142.4, 166.8) 0.0 0.0 -42.4 154.6 0.2% 99.8% -63316
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Live conditional estimates per 5 Minutes (+/- 1 deviation) (models are continuously adjusted)
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TYPE 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 35M 40M
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E[SP] - - - - - - - -54.2
P[W] - - - - - - - 100.0%
ODDS - - - - - - - -
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Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process with BIC Model Selection**
TYPE L95% E[X] U95%
E[F|1H] -51.7 -36.9 -22.0
E[F|NOW] -57.0 -53.9 -50.9
Deep Learning: Quantile GRU v6.0 (Neural Network with Calibrated Uncertainty)
TYPE L95% L68% E[X] U68% U95%
E[F|1H] -46.3 -40.7 -38.7 -36.3 -32.6
E[F|NOW] -63.4 -55.8 -53.1 -49.7 -44.8
Enhanced Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process (BIC-optimized AR order, continuous-time Kalman filtering)
MODEL NOTES:
** O-U Process validated on 61,166 games (MAE: 8.50 pts, well-calibrated 68%/95% confidence intervals)
** GRU v6.0 validated on Fall 2025 (MAE: 10.99 pts, 5.2% better than previous LSTM)
CHART LEGEND:
1) Blue line: O-U Improved model trained on first-half data, locked at halftime (68% and 95% CI shown)
2) Green line: O-U Improved model continuously retrained as new plays arrive (68% CI shown)
3) Both lines use the same statistical model; divergence shows how live events update predictions
4) Model automatically selects AR(1) or AR(2) using BIC for optimal fit to irregular scoring events
Updated: Monday, Dec 15 01:23:18 AM EST
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