Updated: Monday, Dec 15 01:24:13 AM EST

Washington State Cougars vs USC Trojans (Final)
61 - 68, (Margin: -7, Total: 129)
Galen Center


Second-Half conditional estimates based on a margin of -7.0 points and 59.0 total points (models are continuously adjusted up to Halftime)
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E[AWAY]	E[HOME]	E[SP]	    68% CI	  E[TOTAL]	    68% CI	 2H-A	 2H-H	2H-SP	2H-TTL	AWAY WIN%	HOME WIN%	(ODDS HOME)
======================================================================================================================================================
60.3	65.7	-5.4	(-15.5, +4.6)	    125.9	(113.7, 138.1)	 0.0	 0.0	-5.4	125.9	   34.1%	   65.9%	-193
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Live conditional estimates per 5 Minutes (+/- 1 deviation) (models are continuously adjusted)
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  TYPE        5M	       10M	       15M	       20M	       25M	       30M	       35M	       40M
======================================================================================================================================================
 E[SP]         -	         -	         -	         -	         -	         -	         -	      -7.5
  P[W]         -	         -	         -	         -	         -	         -	         -	    100.0%
  ODDS         -	         -	         -	         -	         -	         -	         -	    -99999
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Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process with BIC Model Selection**
TYPE		L95%	E[X]	U95%
E[F|1H]  	-29.2	-7.1	14.9
E[F|NOW]	-9.3	-7.0	-4.7

Deep Learning: Quantile GRU v6.0 (Neural Network with Calibrated Uncertainty)
TYPE		L95%	L68%	E[X]		U68%	U95%
E[F|1H]  	-8.9	-7.7	-7.3		-6.8	-6.0
E[F|NOW]	-8.5	-7.4	-6.9		-6.5	-5.7

Enhanced Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process (BIC-optimized AR order, continuous-time Kalman filtering)



MODEL NOTES:
** O-U Process validated on 61,166 games (MAE: 8.50 pts, well-calibrated 68%/95% confidence intervals)
** GRU v6.0 validated on Fall 2025 (MAE: 10.99 pts, 5.2% better than previous LSTM)

CHART LEGEND:
1) Blue line: O-U Improved model trained on first-half data, locked at halftime (68% and 95% CI shown)
2) Green line: O-U Improved model continuously retrained as new plays arrive (68% CI shown)
3) Both lines use the same statistical model; divergence shows how live events update predictions
4) Model automatically selects AR(1) or AR(2) using BIC for optimal fit to irregular scoring events

Updated: Monday, Dec 15 01:24:13 AM EST
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