Updated: Monday, Dec 15 01:23:55 AM EST
North Texas Mean Green vs South Alabama Jaguars (Final)
58 - 57, (Margin: +1, Total: 115)
Mitchell Center
Second-Half conditional estimates based on a margin of +4.0 points and 56.0 total points (models are continuously adjusted up to Halftime)
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E[AWAY] E[HOME] E[SP] 68% CI E[TOTAL] 68% CI 2H-A 2H-H 2H-SP 2H-TTL AWAY WIN% HOME WIN% (ODDS HOME)
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63.5 56.3 7.3 (-2.8, +17.3) 119.8 (107.6, 132.0) 0.0 0.0 +7.3 119.8 79.1% 20.9% +379
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Live conditional estimates per 5 Minutes (+/- 1 deviation) (models are continuously adjusted)
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TYPE 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 35M 40M
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E[SP] - - - - - - - +0.4
P[W] - - - - - - - 1.0%
ODDS - - - - - - - +10018
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Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process with BIC Model Selection**
TYPE L95% E[X] U95%
E[F|1H] -13.5 4.2 21.9
E[F|NOW] -1.6 1.0 3.6
Deep Learning: Quantile GRU v6.0 (Neural Network with Calibrated Uncertainty)
TYPE L95% L68% E[X] U68% U95%
E[F|1H] 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.8
E[F|NOW] 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.6
Enhanced Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process (BIC-optimized AR order, continuous-time Kalman filtering)
MODEL NOTES:
** O-U Process validated on 61,166 games (MAE: 8.50 pts, well-calibrated 68%/95% confidence intervals)
** GRU v6.0 validated on Fall 2025 (MAE: 10.99 pts, 5.2% better than previous LSTM)
CHART LEGEND:
1) Blue line: O-U Improved model trained on first-half data, locked at halftime (68% and 95% CI shown)
2) Green line: O-U Improved model continuously retrained as new plays arrive (68% CI shown)
3) Both lines use the same statistical model; divergence shows how live events update predictions
4) Model automatically selects AR(1) or AR(2) using BIC for optimal fit to irregular scoring events
Updated: Monday, Dec 15 01:23:55 AM EST
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