Updated: Tuesday, Feb 03 11:04:22 PM EST
Little Rock Trojans vs UT Martin Skyhawks (Final)
52 - 55, (Margin: -3, Total: 107)
Kathleen and Tom Elam Center
Second-Half conditional estimates based on a margin of -2.0 points and 44.0 total points (models are continuously adjusted up to Halftime)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E[AWAY] E[HOME] E[SP] 68% CI E[TOTAL] 68% CI 2H-A 2H-H 2H-SP 2H-TTL AWAY WIN% HOME WIN% (ODDS HOME)
======================================================================================================================================================
47.8 47.4 0.3 (-9.7, +10.4) 95.2 (83.0, 107.4) 0.0 0.0 +0.3 95.2 56.2% 43.8% +128
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Live conditional estimates per 5 Minutes (+/- 1 deviation) (models are continuously adjusted)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TYPE 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 35M 40M
======================================================================================================================================================
E[SP] - - - - - - - -3.6
P[W] - - - - - - - 99.9%
ODDS - - - - - - - -99999
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process with BIC Model Selection**
TYPE L95% E[X] U95%
E[F|1H] -12.4 -2.0 8.4
E[F|NOW] -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Enhanced Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process (BIC-optimized AR order, continuous-time Kalman filtering)
MODEL NOTES:
** O-U Process validated on 61,166 games (MAE: 8.50 pts, well-calibrated 68%/95% confidence intervals)
** GRU v6.0 validated on Fall 2025 (MAE: 10.99 pts, 5.2% better than previous LSTM)
CHART LEGEND:
1) Blue line: O-U Improved model trained on first-half data, locked at halftime (68% and 95% CI shown)
2) Green line: O-U Improved model continuously retrained as new plays arrive (68% CI shown)
3) Both lines use the same statistical model; divergence shows how live events update predictions
4) Model automatically selects AR(1) or AR(2) using BIC for optimal fit to irregular scoring events
Updated: Tuesday, Feb 03 11:04:22 PM EST
Back