Updated: Tuesday, Feb 03 11:06:13 PM EST
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Toledo Rockets (Final)
75 - 72, (Margin: +3, Total: 147)
Savage Arena
Second-Half conditional estimates based on a margin of -7.0 points and 65.0 total points (models are continuously adjusted up to Halftime)
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E[AWAY] E[HOME] E[SP] 68% CI E[TOTAL] 68% CI 2H-A 2H-H 2H-SP 2H-TTL AWAY WIN% HOME WIN% (ODDS HOME)
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66.4 71.8 -5.4 (-15.5, +4.6) 138.2 (126.0, 150.4) 0.0 0.0 -5.4 138.2 34.1% 65.9% -193
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Live conditional estimates per 5 Minutes (+/- 1 deviation) (models are continuously adjusted)
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TYPE 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 35M 40M
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E[SP] - - - - - - - +0.4
P[W] - - - - - - - 1.0%
ODDS - - - - - - - +10018
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Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process with BIC Model Selection**
TYPE L95% E[X] U95%
E[F|1H] -21.4 -6.7 8.1
E[F|NOW] -0.3 1.0 2.3
Enhanced Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process (BIC-optimized AR order, continuous-time Kalman filtering)
MODEL NOTES:
** O-U Process validated on 61,166 games (MAE: 8.50 pts, well-calibrated 68%/95% confidence intervals)
** GRU v6.0 validated on Fall 2025 (MAE: 10.99 pts, 5.2% better than previous LSTM)
CHART LEGEND:
1) Blue line: O-U Improved model trained on first-half data, locked at halftime (68% and 95% CI shown)
2) Green line: O-U Improved model continuously retrained as new plays arrive (68% CI shown)
3) Both lines use the same statistical model; divergence shows how live events update predictions
4) Model automatically selects AR(1) or AR(2) using BIC for optimal fit to irregular scoring events
Updated: Tuesday, Feb 03 11:06:13 PM EST
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