Updated: Monday, Apr 08 11:30:34 PM EST TXTEC vs VA (0:01 - 2nd Half) 68 - 68, (Margin: +0, Total: 136) U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN Second-Half conditional estimates based on a margin of -3.0 points and 61.0 total points (models are continously adjusted up to Halftime) =================================================================================================================================================== E[AWAY] E[HOME] E[SP] 68% CI E[TOTAL] 68% CI 2H-A 2H-H 2H-SP 2H-TTL AWAY WIN% HOME WIN% (ODDS HOME) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 63.0 69.0 -6.0 (-15.5, +4.0) 132.0 (120.0, 144.5) 34.0 37.0 -3.0 71.0 31.0% 69.0% -226 =================================================================================================================================================== Live conditional estimates per 5 Minutes (+/- 1 deviation) (models are continously adjusted) =================================================================================================================================================== TYPE 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 35M 40M -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- E[SP] --- ( ---) --- ( ---) --- ( ---) --- ( ---) --- ( ---) --- ( ---) --- ( ---) 3 ( 0) P[W] ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% 100% 0% ODDS --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 604088011785656 =================================================================================================================================================== Continuous AR(1) via Kalman Filter** TYPE L95% E[X] U95% E[F|1H] -6.0 -2.0 1.5 E[F|NOW] -6.5 -2.0 1.5 Live Endogenous Model (Parameterized Orstein-Uhlenbeck Process, stationary)** Accounts for uneven sampling of scoring events 1) Blue line with 68% and 95% confidence interval is live estimate of half-time spread (can vary with exogenous 2ND half model above) 2) Green line with 68% confidence interval is live estimate of spread (can vary with exogenous live model above) 3) The blue and green lines are useful to track in-game divergence during second-half play Updated: Monday, Apr 08 11:30:34 PM EST Back