Updated: Monday, Apr 05 11:27:24 PM EST BAYLOR vs GONZAG (0:50 - 2nd Half) 86 - 67, (Margin: +19, Total: 153) Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN Second-Half conditional estimates based on a margin of +10.0 points and 84.0 total points (models are continously adjusted up to Halftime) =================================================================================================================================================== E[AWAY] E[HOME] E[SP] 68% CI E[TOTAL] 68% CI 2H-A 2H-H 2H-SP 2H-TTL AWAY WIN% HOME WIN% (ODDS HOME) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 85.5 77.0 8.5 (-1.0, +18.0) 162.0 (150.0, 174.5) 38.5 40.0 -1.5 78.0 81.0% 19.0% +423 =================================================================================================================================================== Live conditional estimates per 5 Minutes (+/- 1 deviation) (models are continously adjusted) =================================================================================================================================================== TYPE 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 35M 40M -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- E[SP] --- ( ---) --- ( ---) --- ( ---) --- ( ---) --- ( ---) --- ( ---) --- ( ---) 18.5 ( 2.5) P[W] ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% ---% 100% 0% ODDS --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 29595450 =================================================================================================================================================== Continuous AR(1) via Kalman Filter** TYPE L95% E[X] U95% E[F|1H] -0.5 9.0 18.0 E[F|NOW] 2.0 12.0 22.0 Live Endogenous Model (Parameterized Orstein-Uhlenbeck Process, stationary)** Accounts for uneven sampling of scoring events 1) Blue line with 68% and 95% confidence interval is live estimate of half-time spread (can vary with exogenous 2ND half model above) 2) Green line with 68% confidence interval is live estimate of spread (can vary with exogenous live model above) 3) The blue and green lines are useful to track in-game divergence during second-half play Updated: Monday, Apr 05 11:27:24 PM EST Back